Illustrative business case · not SpaceX guidance

SpaceX P&L & Balance Sheet — Interactive AI Build-Out Model

Reported results through Q2 2026, then a quarterly forecast out to the end of 2028. The three inputs on the left are the ones that matter most: how fast SpaceX builds AI compute, what it earns per gigawatt, and what each gigawatt costs to build. Change them and every number here moves. Everything else stays at the model's base case.

$ in millions unless noted
Source: SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings release

Step 1 · optional shortcut

Load a preset

Not sure where to start? These fill in the pricing and cost boxes below with one of three ready-made views, from sceptical to management's own. Your build-out schedule is left alone.

Step 2 · your scenario

Custom scenario inputs

These three boxes drive everything else. Type in any cell to see the effect immediately.

AI compute build-out

How much AI compute is installed at the end of each quarter. SpaceX had 1.4 GW at Q226.

AI revenue per GW $mm · per year

AI capex per incremental GW $bn

What it costs to build each new gigawatt. Estimates for a 1 GW build run from about $20bn to $90bn. This is the single biggest driver of cash burn and borrowing.

Revenue by segment

$mm per quarter · paler bars are projections

Space Connectivity AI

Net income (loss)

AI compute build-out & realized pricing

Projected quarters only

Nameplate GW, period end

Realized AI $/GW/yr (blended)

Consolidated P&L

$mm · shaded columns are what SpaceX actually reported

Balance sheet (simplified projection)

$mm · first column is reported, the rest projected

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